OPEC cuts oil demand growth forecast

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has cut its global oil demand growth projection for 2026 to 1.2 million b/d – about 200,000 b/d lower than its previous estimate.

IMAGE: OPEC logo. Getty Images

OPEC sees global oil demand to reach about 106.33 million b/d in 2026, including about 46.06 million b/d from OECD economies – about 10,000 b/d lower than its April projection.

OPEC has forecast oil demand from non-OECD countries to average around 60.27 million b/d this year – about 19,000 b/d lower than its previous projection. 

“Oil demand in the OECD in 2026 is a healthy projected to grow by about 0.1 mb/d [100,000 b/d], while the non-OECD oil demand in 2026 is forecast to see healthy growth of 1.1 mb/d, y-o-y, [1.1 million b/d year-on-year],” OPEC said.

In the non-OECD region, oil demand is expected to be driven by consumption in China, India and other Asian countries, “further supported by Africa, Latin America and the Middle East.”

Global oil consumption in 2027 is expected to grow by about 1.5 million b/d, to average 107.87 million b/d – slightly lower than OPEC’s previous projection.

OPEC sees demand growth for its crude at 42.7 million b/d for 2026 – about 200,000 b/d lower than last month’s projection. The Saudi Arabia-led coalition expects demand for its crude to grow by 800,000 b/d to reach 43.6 million b/d next year.

Supply estimates

Total crude oil production by OPEC+ members averaged 33.19 million b/d last month, about 1.74 million b/d lower than in March, OPEC said.

Oil production in the group’s de-facto leader Saudi Arabia declined by 958,000 b/d in April to about 6.8 million b/d. Kuwait cut production by 561,000 b/d last month to about 600,000 b/d.

The decline in production came amid the ongoing hostilities in the Middle East region, with cross-border firing directly targeting the region’s highly valued energy assets.

Iraq and Iran reduced production by 291,000 b/d and 211,000 b/d to 1.4 million b/d and 2.9 million b/d respectively.

Meanwhile, oil production in the UAE – a recently departed core-OPEC member – increased by 131,000 b/d to about 2.0 million b/d, OPEC said.

The Vienna-headquartered coalition sees non-OPEC production to grow by 600,000 b/d, with output expected to average around 54.8 million b/d this year – matching its previous estimate.

“The main drivers of liquids production growth are expected to be Brazil, the US, Canada and Argentina,” it said.

The OPEC+ coalition comprise of the core 12 OPEC member countries, along with Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia and Sudan.

By Aparupa Mazumder

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