Fuel Switch Snapshot: Gas rally lifts LNG and LBM above LSMGO for Otto MS

B100 slips to a $62/mt discount to HSFO in Rotterdam

LBM’s premiums over B100 widen by $160-161/mt in Rotterdam

Front-month ICE Brent futures climb to $114.97/bbl ($843/mt)

All bunker prices described in the text below have been adjusted for calorific content to make them VLSFO-equivalent. They have estimated EU-EU voyage compliance costs included for Rotterdam, and nonEU-EU compliance costs included for Singapore. These account for EU ETS costs and FuelEU Maritime penalties, and the average price of compliance surpluses we have picked up from the FuelEU pooling market over the past week.

In Rotterdam, LNG burnt in Otto medium speed (Otto MS) engines has flipped from a $23/mt discount to LSMGO to a $44/mt premium over the past week. LNG prices have climbed with the TTF gas contract they are priced on, and LNG (Otto MS) has gained $107/mt while LSMGO has risen by $41/mt.

Liquefied biomethane (LBM) burnt in Otto MS engines has flipped from a $17/mt discount to LSMGO to a $42/mt premium, as LBM (Otto MS) has gained $101/mt and LSMGO $41/mt.

For vessels with diesel slow speed (diesel SS) engines, LNG’s discount to LSMGO has narrowed by $65/mt to $73/mt, and LBM’s has narrowed by $58/mt to $79/mt. LNG (diesel SS) has gained $106/mt and LBM (diesel SS) $99/mt.

LSMGO had been pricier than LNG (Otto MS) in Rotterdam since early February, as the chart below shows. The gas rally over the past week has now pushed LNG (Otto MS) above it.

In Rotterdam, B100 has flipped from a $26/mt premium over HSFO to a $62/mt discount, as B100 has fallen by $61/mt while HSFO has gained $27/mt. Its discount to VLSFO has widened by $80/mt to $138/mt, with VLSFO up $19/mt.

LBM’s premiums over B100 have widened by $160-161/mt to $625-746/mt depending on engine type, as LBM has gained $99-101/mt while B100 has fallen by $61/mt.

OceanScore’s FuelEU pooling index has held at €95.80/mtCO2e ($107/mtCO2e) over the past week.

Liquid fuels

Rotterdam’s HSFO, VLSFO and LSMGO prices have gained $19-41/mt over the past week, with LSMGO up the most.

Dutch ZRE A tickets have held at €240/mtCO2e ($269/mtCO2e) over the past week, Prima Markets said.

In Singapore, HSFO, VLSFO and LSMGO prices have risen by $19-44/mt, with LSMGO up the most. B100 has gained $46/mt.

Front-month ICE Brent futures have rallied $6.51/bbl ($48/mt) higher to $114.97/bbl ($843/mt) over the past week. Dec26 EUA prices have risen by $2.64/mtCO2e to $98.73/mtCO2e.

Liquid gases

TTF has strengthened amid supply disruptions at Norway’s Troll and Asgard gas fields, forecasts of lower temperatures across Europe and renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, according to the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC).

“Colder weather, low stocks, unplanned outages in Norway are all adding upward pressure on prices, but the single most important driver is still geopolitics and the risk of renewed military tensions in the Middle East,” said International Energy Agency (IEA) gas analyst Greg Molnár.

Singapore’s LNG prices have risen by $82-83/mt depending on engine type. JKM prices have risen amid supply risks linked to tensions in the Middle East and forecasts of colder-than-normal winter temperatures in Europe, according to JOGMEC.

By Erik Hoffmann

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